This story is featured in Lord Niel's book, 'Don't Eat Those Dumb Beans!'
EDDIE’S Fish Shack
The story
of Eddie’s fish shack provides food for thought. (Excuse the pun.) There are a
few similar stories around. This one was told by a sales manager I knew and I
quote it as he explained it to me. This is a classic story of someone who
swallowed down a whole load of ideas and started to make important business
decisions based on them. Basically they were fed a lot of ‘dumb beans’ and they
ate them. Thank goodness Eddie has a smart wife.
Eddie and
his son John had a fish shop in a very popular part of a major city. The
building was old and the grounds had been there for many years but it was an
iconic fish shack that everybody used to go to. In the mornings it was the
perfect place for breakfast with bacon and egg burgers all the rage. But it was
the fish and chips that had built the reputation of the business. People used
to take their families on the weekend and during school holidays everybody in
the area headed for a plate of their famous fish and chips. It was truly a
successful family business.
One day,
John was reading a magazine on business and he noted the observations of an
economic adviser who was making predictions for the future. None of the
predictions were very positive and the article concluded by indicating that all
sources seemed to suggest that a downturn in the retail industry was about to
occur. The adviser warned businesses to be very careful in terms of their
expenditure. It anticipated poor times in business in the year ahead as the economic
downturn was sure to hit home and small businesses in particular would well be
affected. John felt that this was something that they needed to consider. He
discussed it with his father and they became very concerned. John suggested
that they needed to take steps to make sure that their business would survive
what he saw as catastrophic times ahead.
So they
looked around for ways to save money. Each year it had been their custom to
paint the fish shack. The Fish Shack was old and a bit run down and so a
regular slap of paint had kept it looking bright and clean. Of course it was a
significant expense. Then too, the grounds around the fish shack were old and
some paintwork kept it looking bright. Painting it each year seemed an
extravagance, especially with the anticipated downturn coming. So they decided
that they would not paint the grounds or the building this year.
For
several months business was good. But then one or two people noticed, as they
were driving down the road that the old Fish Shack was looking a bit tatty. A
few people turned to their partners and said, “that place looks a bit run down.
I wonder if there’s something a bit smarter further on.” And so they kept
driving. Sure enough, they found other places quite nearby.
Because
the building looked quite rundown and because the grounds were looking very old
this happened more often. People were driving down the road looking for a place
to eat but the general appearance of the place was by no means what it had
been. More and more people began to drive by.
At the end
of the next quarter when they looked at the figures, they found that just as
they had anticipated, the figures had dropped. Eddie was grateful to John that
he has found this article on the economic downturn. “Thank goodness we saved the
money that we did by cutting expenses. I wonder what else we can do. If things
continue to deteriorate like this we will need to look at everything we can do
to save funds.”
So they
looked around the building and they immediately thought about the large signs
that they left on all night. The site was equipped with some very large neon
signs that advertised the best plate of fish and chips in town. Turning the
signs on overnight was an expense. They thought about it and realized that they
could save some reasonable funds by turning them off. So they made this
decision to save funds and do the “smart thing” to cut their costs. Drivers on
the main road would often see these signs early in the morning and late in the
evening. They would say to themselves, “I must try that place. The fish and
chips must be very good there.” It would be a regular reminder for them to
bring their families on the weekend. After all, Eddies was an iconic place. And
now they noticed that the signs were no longer on. They thought of themselves,
“it looks like Eddies is closed down. After all these years it must be really
sad the business to be gone. We will have to go somewhere else with my family this
weekend.”
Sure
enough, when Eddie checked his figures at the end of the next quarter they had
dropped again. He noticed that weekend trade was well down. They were clearly
not getting the volume of people through that they used to have. Eddie thanked
John. “It’s a good job that we cut those costs with the signage. Our sales have
gone down yet again. The article was spot-on.” If this continued they realized
that they were going to be in a bit of trouble financially. So they discussed
how they could save funds again. On the weekend it was their custom to hire a
number of extra staff. They also had additional people present early in the
morning to serve truckers with bacon and eggs. They decided to save money by
reducing the number of staff to serve during the busy times. They could do this
themselves.
That
weekend was a busy weekend. As people drove towards the Fish Shack they noticed
the large queues. Partners turned to each other and said, “I can’t be bothered
waiting in that queue. Maybe we can find some place further on.” So they kept
driving and sure enough they did. The Fish Shack was reasonably busy and both
Eddie and John were very tired but at the end of the day the figures were well
down. Eddie’s wife was not impressed with how much work he was doing. She
decided that she wanted to check this out for herself. While Eddie was happy
that they were saving money in the economic downturn she wasn’t all that
convinced that they were actually in an economic downturn.
She
decided that she was going to check this out for herself. She was not convinced
at all that the city was in the grips of an economic downturn. From what she
could see the city was doing quite well. And yet, as her husband pointed out,
their figures were down. So she went for a drive around the area where the
business was looking at other cafeterias and food places. What she found was
shocking. About one kilometer up the road from Eddie’s place was a fish and
chips place that served the worst fish and chips that she had ever tasted and
yet the place was packed out. She dropped in for a plate of limp chips and
hardly cooked fish. She listened to the crowd in the queue. Occasionally she
heard reference to the old Fish Shack. People were saying “what a shame it was
that the old place had closed down. They used to serve the best fish and chips in
town.”
It was
described as being an iconic place. “We always used to go there on the weekend.
The place is so run down these days. And the service is gone. You should see
the queues and only two people serving. Sure it’s a good plate of fish and
chips but for how long.”
Wherever
she went she found a similar story. She didn’t have to listen for long to hear
people talking about Eddie’s. If only someone would take over the place and
build it up again.
That night
at home there was quite an interesting evening. They pulled out the article and
showed it to her. She then went through with them all the steps that they had
taken to try to prepare for the economic downturn. As they did and she talked
to them about what people were saying in the area they began to realize what
they had done. They had believed on face value the advice in the article
without considering the fact that it was at best a guess based on reasonable
data available to the writer. Their steps had made it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The two
men went for a look around the area themselves and realized that she was right.
They had been the architects of their own demise. The economic downturn
predicted for the city had not happened. People were eating out more often than
ever. And many people wished that Eddie would get his Fish Shack going again.
So what
did they do?
They
switched the signs back on. They repainted the Fish Shack and the grounds. They
rehired the staff. And they advertised specials to bring people back to Eddies.
Interestingly, because people had tried the limp fish and chips nearby they
were more interested than ever in Eddie’s iconic Fish Shack. Today it is doing
better than ever.
The moral
of this story is certainly worth considering. [Actually there are a lot of additional
lessons in this story. Business owners might well draw a lot of benefit from
considering it with their people.] Sometimes you will read predictions about
market trends from quite well informed sources but it is always good to check
things out for yourself.
In today’s
day and age people feel that it is a sign of weakness not to know the answers
to questions. So when you ask them about certain trends they will sometimes
formulate an answer rather than appear to be uninformed or weak. So always check things out for yourself. Sometimes a
trend is short lived. At times it will run for years. How do you know? Check it
out for yourself.
The value
of personally discovered information cannot be overrated. It is worth doing
personal investigation. Some people are very good at gathering facts and not
very good at analyzing what the facts mean. This is where personal observation
coupled with a real instinct as to where things are going in the market can be
invaluable.